Bruce Dias 
In 2025, Major League Baseball’s offensive numbers have plummeted, drawing comparisons to the game’s lowest-scoring period. Looking beyond the stats, there is a superficial similarity, but there’s a fundamentally different game underpinned by modern pitching dominance and the enduring “three true outcomes” approach.
Major League Baseball is a dynamic hybrid of offense and defense. This constant evolution leads to endless debates about the character of the game and its parallels in history. Several fans and analysts are whispering about a sharp decline in hitting statistics right now: “Dead Ball Era.” In that historical period, roughly 1900-1920, there was anemic offense, few home runs, and a lot of gritty “small ball.” But does 2025 really mark a return to those conditions?
The Original Dead Ball Era Was Defined by Suppressed Power
Looking back, the Dead Ball Era was all about low scores and rough gameplay. Take 1908, for example, which is considered the worst year. Teams were averaging only 3.4 runs per game, and their slugging percentages were around .306. Home runs? They were super rare. The Chicago White Sox team managed just three all season. Top players were hitting single-digit home runs. Offense relied on stolen bases, bunts, and hit-and-run.
Some very unique factors created this environment. The foul-strike rule forced hitters to protect the plate earlier in counts, leading to more strikeouts (1901 NL, 1903 AL). Baseballs were “dead” and were reused until they became softer and harder to drive. Pitchers doctored balls with spit or scuff marks so they would dance unexpectedly. Potential home runs became longer due to the vast dimensions of the baseball fields. Better fielding gloves made putting the ball in play less rewarding. Those were the rules, equipment, and conditions that fundamentally suppressed hitting.
2025 Offense Shows Alarming Declines But Modern Signatures
Fast forward to 2025 and the raw numbers are definitely concerning. The league’s batting average is just shy of 1908’s, which was a low of 239 at the time. Early season figures dropped even further, reaching historic lows. Runs per game (4.32) and OPS (0.712) are both down from 2019 peaks (4.83 R/G, 0.758 OPS). At record lows, hits per game (7.78) and balls in play (23.90) are achieved. On the surface, this sounds like Dead Ball.
Home runs have decreased from the 2019 peak (1.08 vs. 1.39), yet still far exceed the Dead Ball Era (0.15). Strikeouts (8.26 per game) and walks (3.23 per game) are elevated but typical. The 2025 game averages are characterized by the “three true outcomes”: home runs, walks, and strikeouts, with minimal impactful contact against modern pitching, not due to dead balls or doctored pitches, but rather the current game framework.
Sportsbooks Adjust to the Pitching-First Reality
Low-scoring games really shake up sports betting. With fewer runs, oddsmakers lower the over/under totals, leading to more games finishing around 3-5 runs instead of 8-10. This changes betting habits, making props that favor pitchers, like strikeout totals and betting “under” on hitters, a lot more popular and safer options.
Sportsbook betting promos often reflect trends in the game. Expect boosted odds or insurance offers for pitchers. Bets on stolen bases are rising due to changes like bigger bases and the pitch clock affecting pitchers. High-scoring games are becoming more predictable, so sportsbooks may focus on pitching duels and individual milestones. Expert bettors are looking at pitcher vs. batter matchups and metrics like expected batting average (xBA) to find value in a pitcher-dominated market.
Statistical Comparisons Show Profound Differences
Viewing key metrics side by side reveals the divergence:
- Runs/G: 2025 (4.32) is far above 1908 (3.4) but well below 2000 (5.14) or 2019 (4.83).
- Batting Avg: The similarity is striking: .245 (2025) vs. .239 (1908).
- Slugging %: Here’s the power gap: .396 (2025) vs. .306 (1908). Modern hits do more damage.
- HR/G: The chasm is vast: 1.08 (2025) vs. ~0.15 (1908). Power is still central.
- SO/G & BB/G: 2025 (8.26 K, 3.23 BB) vs. Dead Ball (Very Low K, Very Low BB). Outcomes avoiding contact rule today.
A low batting average connects the eras, but the reasons for the differences are not fully understood. In 1908, it was all about manufactured runs with little power and few strikeouts. In 2025, it boils down to pitchers dominating within a power-and-patience game, resulting in fewer balls going for hits.
Adapting to Modern Pitching Fuels the Current Struggle
But why are they going after it so hard in 2025? This isn’t just a game of dead balls or spitballs. Those are two reasons why recent rule changes meant to help offenses have been stifled by pitching advances:
- Pitching Dominance: Velocity is climbing (average: 93-94 mph, elite: 100 mph). The pitchers “throw smarter,” using multiple fastball types, cutters (up 9.8% in 3-ball counts), and sweepers – all designed with advanced data to maximize deception and weak contact. The analytics-driven attack plans are relentless.
- Rule Change Side Effects: The pitch clock speeds up the game but pressures pitchers, sometimes leading to deeper counts and more walks. In 2023, the shift ban worked, but pitchers changed their pitch selection and location to induce outs. Bigger bases helped boost stolen bases, but did not fix the hitting slump.
- Hitter Adjustments: Bats are making better contact overall than they have in recent lows. Yet, record foul balls in deep counts (23.9% in 3-ball counts) often end in walks instead of hits. The focus remains on launch angle and exit velocity, sometimes sacrificing contact for power potential.
- The Ball & Umps: The early 2025 data points to slightly higher drag baseball distances versus the “juiced” 2019 balls (all balls are in humidors for consistency). In early 2025, umpires called for fewer strikes on edge pitches, which contributed to the increase in walks. A potentially game-changing development is the automated strike zone (ABS).
This Is a New Phase of Pitching Dominance, Not a True Dead Ball
So, are we in a new Dead Ball Era of American baseball? The answer is a nuanced no. The 2025 season shares the symptom of a low batting average with the early 20th century. But the sickness is different. This isn’t an era defined by absent power and small-ball necessity. It’s the apex (so far) of the analytics-driven, velocity-fueled pitching revolution operating within the modern “three true outcomes” paradigm. Pitchers have gained a significant upper hand in the eternal battle against hitters.
The game’s consequences are significant, with fewer hits and balls in play affecting fan engagement, prompting recent rule changes. Evaluating hitters now requires context like OPS+ due to a depressed environment. Teams that combine power and speed are better positioned to adapt. Meanwhile, pitchers continue to refine their skills. Hitters may focus on improving contact abilities. The introduction of an automated strike zone could change dynamics further. If offensive numbers remain low, MLB might implement further adjustments to maintain a balance between hitters and pitchers.
