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  • Will Manchester City Qualify for the Champions League?

Will Manchester City Qualify for the Champions League?

Pernithia Galnith April 16, 2025 4 min read
176
Figure 1 It has been a poor season for Manchester City

 

There have not been too many times over the last few seasons that Manchester City fans will have been anxiously waiting to hear news from the Emirates that Arsenal was winning. But the North London club’s victory over Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal tie recently might have been greeted with the type of celebration a late City winner at Old Trafford would provoke.

The reason why City fans wanted Arsenal to win its game against the Spanish powerhouse was nothing to do with their desire to see all English clubs do well, but more to do with the increased chance it gave Manchester City of playing in the most prestigious European club competition of all next season.

Fans may well read a Bovada.lv review to find out about the bonuses available for Champions League betting. But the markets for that competition were beginning to look less likely to include Manchester City the way this season has gone. That Arsenal victory has now given City an extra lifeline and renewed hope that next season can be a success after the disaster of the current campaign.

The English Premier League is one of the best in the world and is home to some of the biggest – and well-supported – teams on the planet. That is why the top four automatically qualify for the next season’s Champions League each year. Since City was taken over by its wealthy United Arab Emirates owners in 2008, the club has been a regular trophy winner on the domestic front and finally claimed its first-ever Champions League title in 2023. It has qualified for the famous competition for the last 14 years, but performances this season have put that streak of good fortune very much in doubt.

It is difficult to point the blame at any one factor for Manchester City’s dismal season so far. It might be as simple as the fact that all dominant eras come to a close at some point, but the speed of the decline has been a real surprise to everyone. With just over a month left of the current season to go, City is scrambling to finish in the top six or seven, let alone the top four positions that would assure it of a Champions League place. Playing in the Europa or Conference League would be a dream come true for the majority of teams in the EPL, but both of those competitions would be a huge step down for City.

Image1

Now, Arsenal has provided Pep Guardiola with something of a lifeline. UEFA, the organization that runs European soccer, awards an extra Champions League place to the league whose teams perform the best every season. In the past, the Italian and Spanish leagues have benefitted from the move, and this year, the EPL is the lucky recipient. Thanks to the excellent form of all the English clubs – across the three European competitions – the Premier League will have five clubs in the Champions League next season.

Of course, the way things are going for Manchester City, there is no guarantee that it will even finish in the top five. Liverpool looks like it has the title sewn up now, with Arsenal almost guaranteed to finish as runner-up once again. The race for what was the other two places is being battled over by Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Newcastle, and Aston Villa – as well as Manchester City. It could even be argued that a rich vein of form for either Fulham, Brighton, or Bournemouth could see them sneak in. That means that there could be as many as eight clubs striving to claim the two remaining Champions League places.

The good news for Manchester City is that the worst of the season already seems to be over. The recent dire performance in a goalless draw against rivals Manchester United may not entirely convince everyone of that, but there have been fewer losses in the last few months compared to the spell in the middle of the season when City went over 10 games in all competitions without a victory. The bad news is that Guardiola’s side still has to face Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Fulham – all potential rivals for European places – before the end of the season.

There may yet be another Champions League lifeline available for Manchester City, however. Arsenal’s win over Real Madrid may have granted another place for the EPL, but if one of the remaining English clubs actually goes on to lift the famous trophy, there might be another. Arsenal should already qualify for the competition, thanks to its league position, but if Aston Villa also finishes in the top five, beats Paris Saint-Germain in its quarterfinal tie, and then overcome Arsenal or Real Madrid in the last four, there will be one game separating the club from glory – and, more importantly for City, the possibility of another Champions League berth.

Figure 2 There might not be any Champions League football here next season
Figure 2 There might not be any Champions League football here next season

UEFA grants a guaranteed place in the next year to the winner of the Champions League, and if either Arsenal or Villa wins the trophy, that place will be given to the team that finishes sixth in the EPL. It would be the same if the very unlikely event of Manchester United or Spurs finishing in the top five and winning the Europa League occurs. There could be six English clubs in the Champions League main phase next season if everything goes their way.

It is incredible that a soccer force such as Manchester City has been over the last decade, would need to qualify for the Champions League via this “back door” method. Guardiola’s side still needs to ensure it finishes in the top five or six – which is far from guaranteed – but if that is achieved, the club might just about be able to play in a 15th consecutive season of Champions League soccer.

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